“Actually, when it comes to climate protection, some things have now been set in motion. But if you look at the development of social processes in detail, keeping global warming under 1.5 degrees still isn’t plausible,” says Anita Engels, a professor at Universität Hamburg’s Cluster of Excellence.

Although factors such as climate legislation and divestment from fossil fuels are supporting efforts to meet the climate goals, they won’t suffice to help us stay within the 1.5-degree limit. “The deep decarbonization required is simply progressing too slowly,” Engels observes.

Importantly, global economic recovery in the wake of a downturn precipitated by the Covid-19 pandemic and the Russian invasion of Ukraine depends in large part on fossil fuels, which will keep emissions high.

In addition, physical processes such as the ongoing loss of Arctic sea ice, deforestation in the Amazon and thawing permafrost are also driving climate change even if they will have little influence on global temperatures until the middle of the century.

“The fact is these feared tipping points could drastically change the conditions for life on Earth, but they’re largely irrelevant for reaching the Paris Agreement temperature goals,” explains Jochem Marotzke,a professor at the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology.

In the face of missing the climate goals we will need to focus on adopting to climate change instead. “If we fail to meet the climate goals, adapting to the impacts will become all the more important,” Engels says.

“In order to be equipped for a warmer world, we have to anticipate changes, get the affected parties on board, and take advantage of local knowledge. Instead of just reacting, we need to begin an active transformation here and now,” she stresses.